Tropical Outlook: System Possibility in early August 👀; 30% to 40% chances

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Publicado 2024-07-29

After a couple of weeks of calm weather through July, the "main development region" of the Atlantic Ocean for tropical systems is showing signs of heating up, according to WRAL meteorologist Chris Michaels. Some of those clouds off the coast of Africa could eventually produce a tropical wave that may become a tropical storm. The European model shows 30% to 40% chances for a tropical storm to form in the Atlantic by Aug. 3. That's not a surprise, as the 2024 hurricane season has been forecast to be an active one due to a La Niña pattern.

A La Niña pattern means weaker easterly trade winds and below average vertical wind shear. Basically, in La Niña conditions, there is less wind to break up a tropical system as it organizes. WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell says, "It's easier for storms to form and easier for them to strengthen."

The Atlantic hurricane season runs each year from June 1 to Nov. 30. The most active time is late August into October, but it's possible to see a hurricane make landfall any time of the year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put out their tropical outlook and estimated we'll see between 17 and 25 tropical storms this season.

The NOAA is forecasting 8 to 13 hurricanes this season and 4 to 7 major hurricanes, which is a Category 3 or higher.

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