AI Predictions ― 2024 to 2030 ― Year By Year Breakdown w/ Insider Info

When it gets quiet, that’s when you have to worry. Change is coming.

I’m not sure about everyone else but I really enjoy these prediction videos.

For about 5 years now, I dubbed the period between ~1979 and ~2025 the "Y2K Epoch" (to harken back to the Belle Èpoque) > Framed by the rise of neoliberalism and the 4th Industrial Revolution, the Y2K epoch is known for a few notable traits that define it as this intermediate period between the Old and the New. It was an era of skyscrapers and rose-petal highways, SUVs and bicycling for the environment, of color TV becoming HD TV, the rise of the internet and internet culture, the consolidation of big banking and corporate culture, the postmodernization of culture, video gaming as a hobby and then an art form, of cellular phones and smartphones, of commercial air travel for the masses, of ridiculously stark income inequality masked by ridiculously advanced technology by historical standards, of old sins suddenly becoming publicly shamed and new vices becoming celebrated, and the commodification of demographics, of an openly diverse world regime of governments beholden to corporations and the United Nations seeming more competent than they were due to there being no major threats to the global geopolitical order, of the Web and Web 2.0. The stereotypical image of this era is that of the yuppie banker checking his stocks on his smartphone while a Boeing 747 flies over the metropolis in which he lives and works. > There's two words that summarize the Y2K epoch better than any other: "Capitalism Triumphant"

People don't hear about a groundbreaking new model for over 3 months and 90% of people did a full 180 on their opinion about AI development, it's ridiculous. If you think logically about it for over 10 seconds, you know it's ridiculous to even assume the possibility of slow AI progress...

The 2028 and beyond timeline just feels too optimistic to me. Why would the ruling class decide to share the power they have amassed over the last century? I could imagine a mass survaillance state sooner than hyper-abundence due to what we saw in history.

It's impressive that Kurzweil predicted AI passing the Turing test in 2029 decades ago when AI researchers mostly were a lot more pessimistic. He also predicted that the years leading up to 2029 will convince many that it already has passed, but wouldn't actually have passed according to the tougher version he promoted. Of course, 2029 might be too pessimistic, but it will be close enough to be impressive. Conversely, doing an accurate prediction NOW is almost worthless by comparison, given how much more we know.

The ending quote is usually attributed without any evidence to Einstein. Given his and others then seeing what nuclear discoveries had begun to turn into, it would be understandable they would think of such a thing.

I saved it to my "Watch again in 2027" playlist.

Prepare now. Use all the latest commercially available models then leverage your experience/knowledge/data and use it in the new models as they come out. That's my AI billionaire plan on a 2024 budget 😂

I think that people's impatience in expectation of increased LLM capabilities is a sign of how timescales have become compressed. Even taking into account concerns around escalating costs etc., it's premature to be disappointed with the progress of a rapidly developing technology just because it hasn't transformed society on a timescale of 24 months. Honestly I don't think wider society and the business environment are capable of responding that quickly even if AGI were dumped on their desks tomorrow afternoon, so there will inevitably be a lag time.

Claude 4 or GPT 5 with the right agent framework will be considered almost AGI

I'm working on AI research (not at a frontier lab though) but I'm working on alternatives to backpropagation through gradient descent. I agree that there is reason to think AI development might appear to slow on the front end, but on the back end there is an incredible amount of research being done and I'm fairly confident that a few breakthroughs may be on our horizon. From my perspective, AI has hardly slowed at all.

AGI will come before fusion.

My job at a Fortune 500 company uses a third-party software that comes with a gpt model that listens to our calls and summarizes it after we hang up. It also then sorted calls into categories, like whether it was a voicemail, a blank or abandoned call, etc. Middle management then used this information to crack down on employees who either weren't getting people to pick up or hanging up before there was an answer. Edit: Just an anecdote about big company integration. No guidelines on whether we can use gpt for our own work or not.

Rebuilding the world infrastructure from 2030-2040 with robots and ASI might be amazing but privacy and control issues will be a constant worry.

Are general purpose (big) models the goal for everything? Wouldn't smaller, faster and cheaper models be preferred to do most of the mundane tasks? Looking at something like RouteLLM, where you use a big or small model depending on the task. Or maybe the future models dynamically adapt to the size needed depending on the task, but I'm not sure that is possible in the next 2-3 years.

Mira Murati (pretty sure shes's openAi's chief scientist?) has said GPT-5 wont be releasing until late 2025 to early 2026. I do like these prediction videos and with ai still changing at an impressive rate it could be a good idea to do one of these every 6 months or so. I usually go with what Dennis Hassabis says. He's ridiculously intelligent and every single interview I've watched him in he comes across really well and down to earth. He predicted a 50/50 chance of agi by 2030 but possibly somewhat sooner. Seems to line up fairly well with what your saying

It wasn't James Cameron who said that quote. It was Albert Einstein (not quite the same... lol)

I like your videos and I like videos by other people in this space, like Wes Roth. But the thing is, people who got big making AI videos are incentivized to hype AI. It means that you cannot be trusted. Obviously, I’m still gonna watch your videos and keep up with AI news, but whenever you “predict” AGI, you just come off as selling hype to keep your channel thriving.

dis-illusionment is a far better word and concept than disappointment, disappointment already implies and project a state of emotional attachment to the situation while dis-illusionment is just the clearing up of perception due to new information, crease in signal/noise ratio or additional time/effort to analyze the available information. Not everyone has or is even careless enough to develop strong attachments to ideas, hopes or dreams, which let's put it bluntly is a foolish thing to do and only clouds the mind and interferes with future sensemaking and decissionmaking.