The Simple Question that Stumped Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant
5,650,620
Published 2022-02-10
Newsthink is produced and presented by Cindy Pom
twitter.com/cindypom
Grab your Newsthink merch here: newsthink.creator-spring.com
Thank you to our Patrons, including Igli Laci, Ronil Patel, Austin Grant, Tom Eng, Neo Ge, Will Lathrop
Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/Newsthink
Thank you to Parade Magazine for permission to use their images: parade.com/
Thumbnail source:
Marilyn vos Savant photo courtesy of: Ethan Hill
Sources:
6:29 Washington University in St. Louis photo Doc2129, CC BY-SA 4.0 creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0 via Wikimedia Commons
All Comments (21)
-
To learn about Marilyn, here's our newest video on her life (April 2024): https://youtu.be/F6rDygbx5Kk Visit brilliant.org/Newsthink/ to learn math, science, computer science, and data science for FREE for 30 days
-
I had the honor of having dinner with this lady while I was in college. Smart as hell, but very down-to-earth.
-
I would have switched to door #2 as well but for a very different reason. I would have assume that the goats would need to be kept as far apart as possible so they would be less likely to incite each other into making noise and thus giving their relative positions away. Putting the car in between them would help keep them out of each other's sight. I might just have won the car because I knew more about goats than mathematics in that instant!
-
I am most impressed with the math professor who publicly admitted his mistake. It is so refreshing to see someone who will actually take responsibility for their errors, regardless of how embarrassing it may be. If only our politicians could show as much humility. Much respect.
-
I've long understood the Monty Hall solution - but extrapolating the information scale to 100 doors - makes complete sense - knowing that the "one door" is hot - and that you have a 98% chance of being wrong on your first door choice.
-
People humbly and publicly admitting to be wrong, if only that existed today.
-
The best thing about this video is a reminder that when people publicly stated something incorrect, they used to express accountability and humility. That never happens anymore.
-
Now I get it. He will never pick your door, and 2 out of 3 times you have the goat, so in those 2 out of 3 times you have the goat, he reveals the other goat and only the car is left. You win. The only time you lose is when you have the car to begin with.
-
When you initially explained that the other door would have a 2/3rd probability of a car being behind it, i couldn't understand it one bit. But i loved the explaination including a 100 doors where 98 were removed. That explaination immediately clicked to me and now I get it! What an interesting question. I always love these kinds of probability questions cuz they make me use my brain in ways I don't get to use while studying š
-
Simpler explanation; assume you always switch: If you initially picked a goat, you win. If you initially picked the prize you lose. What's more likely?
-
This hurts my brain. But even high level mathematicians didn't understand it at first so I can't feel too bad for not getting it.
-
I look at it this way. There are only three possibilities: 1- you pick the car, so the host shows one of the 2 goats - then you should not switch door 2- you pick goat 1, so the host shows goat 2 - you must switch door 3 - you pick goat 2, so the host shows goat 1 - you must switch door Therefore there is 2 out of 3 chance that switching your door choice will get you the car
-
I think this is the easy way to explain it. Initially, you have a 1/3 chance of getting it right, so you likely got a goat. The host will never select your door, so he only has 2 choices, and he has to pick the one with the goat. When he picks door 3, it implies that door 1 and door 3 have goats, making door 2 have the car. The only time switching would be wrong is if you picked the car to begin with, but again, the likelihood of picking the car, to begin with, is extremely low.
-
People learn much better when they're allowed to follow their interests. If the subject is something that bores you, you'll only retain the information for a required time (test date, usually), but if you are interested, you'll track down information and fill-out the subject more thoroughly. This is the way I educated my youngest son - he chose the subjects and the timing. He graduated top-of-class in Navy Submarine School and is now stationed on a nuclear sub based in Hawaii (his chosen profession)
-
A good way to think about this problem is: You first choose one door. You are then able to change your choice to BOTH the other doors. you get a car even if one of the doors have a goat behind it. This is the exact same thing as to show the goat beforehand.
-
I think there's a simpler way of explaining this puzzle. If you choose the correct door and switch you will be wrong. If you choose the incorrect door and switch you will be right ( because the other wrong door gets eliminated), and you choose the wrong door 2/3 times
-
True! If you initially pick the car you will lose upon switch. If you initially pick the goat you will win upon switch. However picking the car is way less likely... compared to initially picking a goat. So switching has highest chances of winning.
-
First encountered this in high school. I tried to explain: "if you switch it's like picking 2 doors instead of 1", which convinced very few classmates. The teacher noted that I had good intuition and poor articulation. So true.
-
4:10 NOW I get it. Two out of every three times you make the wrong choice so switching will lead to the right choice two out of three times.
-
Learned about this in middle school. It was a really fun concept.
