Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story

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I read a great comment about Zeihan. "He's successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises." Cracked me up.

Not just with China, but elsewhere, Zeihan does an excellent job identifying problems but consistently underestimates the ability of people to adjust and muddle through problems without falling apart. He is generally too pessimistic, but the problems he mentions are valid.

That’s exactly what I suspected, I always enjoy listening to him. I just turn his predictions down a few notches.

Regarding piracy, do you find it at all ironic that, since the Houthi's have begun attacking shipping, the only safe shipping through the region are those flagged either under China or Russia?

This sort of credible challenge is deeply appreciated. Peter is still human and can make mistakes. I appreciate even more that you delivered this critique with the utmost of respect. You’re an excellent example of professionalism in this regard. Thank you.

As a geography teacher I've been keeping tabs on Zeihan for many years and, in my view, he has always attracted people's attention through sensational claims. To me, he is a very knowledgeable sophist. In many of his talks with military personnel he make these claims about how America's greatest rivals aren't really a threat and that countries like China could be easily contained. In his lectures to American soy farmers he always claims that they shouldn't worry about Brazillian competition because of Brazil's bad infrastructure and narrow export corridors.However, year after year, Brazil has produced more soy beans, exported more and more, and has now finalized its largest railway in decades, that cuts the nation from north to south. To me, he will always overlook other nations success, particulary those that have some sort of beef with the US, may it be peaceful competition or geopolitcal rival. I'm a great admirer of the US society and, as a Brazillian, always find ways to learn more about our flaws by observing America's example, but Zeihan only seems to apreciate the success of his country and some of America's friends.

Not hitting your timing and being wrong are two different things. Things are falling apart slower than he expected, but we can see it happening in real time.

I really enjoyed how this video presented the keypoints raised by Mr. Zeihan. I agree with some of the counter arguments, one thing wasn't addressed about the housing market in China, oversupply. They have double the amount of housing units to house double their population. The more of something you have the cheaper it becomes. How will the Chinese deal with this inflationary bubble which will collapse and likely take two thirds of the property value with it. Fundamentally, I do not see a way out without a serious and painful market correction. This is one thing in a democracy, something completely different in a dictatorship.

I think your peer reviews and fact check videos of these popular youtubers are really important. Especially as they serve a big audience that might not be as critical. This may cause even more less critical information spreading the globe. So well done Joeri. You make youtube a better place

I've watched a lot of Zeihan vids and value his analysis, but I'm often surprised at the somewhat extreme nature of his conclusions because they seem not to allow for the possibility of any intervention. I just don't think the world works that way. Thanks for your presentation.

Your first point misunderstands the consumption. People in late 20's to early 30's are taking on lots of debt for housing when they start family formation. That's why that demographic is so important for growth. That economic demand shows shows up immediately without the corresponding income.

Thanks for this video. At risk of showing my own “confirmation bias”, I’ve been watching doomsday predictions for various markets where my own business operates for over 35 years and though there is always a grain of truth to be respected, the net results have almost never unfolded the ways most observers have expected. The moral I have learned is listen to everything, believe nothing, and be prepared to react to real and tangible threats.

This is not a rampant debunking. It positions an strong alternative argument in a respectful way. Enjoyed it. Kudos.

I have traveled and worked in China for about forty years, and have followed its astonishing economic progress with a great deal of interest. You are correct: Zeihan correctly points out problems that now face China, but draws hyperbolic negative conclusions.

Peter Zeihan is like that postman Cliff Calvin in Cheers TV series. He knows everything a little bit. And he can string some big words together and appears to be coherent.

Having lived in Mainland China, I got the sense that the more pessimistic reports about China tend to be the more accurate take. While PZ might sensationalize his predictions, the underlying trends he analyzes from are solid.

I appreciate your thoughtful criticism of Zeihan's predictions and assessments of China. I must mention the Lancet study was published before China admitted to miscounting its population in 2023. The impact was over 100 million. Given the propensity for China to report data with an overly optimistic lens, we are likely to see more corrected census reports. Not to criticize the Lancet, but if they are using faulty data from China, then their conclusions will be inaccurate.

Great video, as a military officer I appreciate Zeihans perspective but yes, definitely important to understand that his perspective is one opinion and not an absolute truth on which to entirely base decisions.

Very good video. The problem I have found with Mr. Zeihan is that he more often than not 1) Comes to a conclusion, and then 2) Finds facts to support his conclusion.