The War in Ukraine: Why 2024 Will Be Decisive

My comments about the US military coup against a Trump presidency were only half-joking. I recommend everyone to read up on Republicans' "Project 2025". That document, outlining what they'll do after they win, contains gems such as ending the separation of church and state, ending the DOJ's independence, expanding presidential powers, adopting Christian nationalism, and basically dismantling the bureaucratic state. It's a terrifying document if one realizes what they're actually reading. The US military is not MAGA-friendly. In fact, MAGA folks criticize it for being "too woke" more and more. If the MAGA group indeed tries to demolish the US political system in its current form, to replace it with a far-right, Christian nationalist autocracy, I predict the US military would intervene. This is IF Trump gets elected, and IF he manages to do what the Republican party say they want to do. I get that such things are hard to imagine for many Americans. An active war for territorial conquest in Europe was just as hard to imagine for Europeans before February 2022.

"Israel can level the Gaza strip with the most modern american weapons, while Ukraine, defending itself against an imperialist invasion, gets only 30 year old leftovers slated for decommissioning. " Yes, this infuriates me too.

If it makes you feel better, Congress did pass a bill a few months ago that essentially made it impossible for the US president to single handedly draw the US out of NATO

The scale and casualties of this war are terrifying. I really feel bad for all these young men having to die and suffer there for no fault of their own.

It's all fine and dandy but the idea of US military staging a coup in case Trump wins seems a tiny bit far-fetched

The rule based world order that you are talking about has already been broken several times in the past in favour of the makers of those rules.

It‘s actually interesting to see how we went from „if Russia invaded, Ukraine will have no chance to fight back“ before the war to „Ukraine is losing because they can‘t throw Russia out of their country!“ The fact that we‘re disappointed by Ukraine not doing „better“ is mostly because we have forgotten how this war was originally SUPPOSED to go.

The EU artillery shell production for 2024 is 1.25m shells and for the US 1.2m shells. The problem is that in Europe those are mostly private companies that have to honor their previous contracts and therefore delivered hundreds of thousands of shells to other countries too. Allegedly half a million were sent to Ukraine by the EU.

Ukrainian here. The part about "Zelensky vs Zaluzhny" is a slightly exaggerated issue. There was a point when we all here suspected that this info about their conflict was a psyop. Even if there are some misunderstandings between military and civilian governments the goals are still clear for both and they communicate all the time.

Remember when every other week was supposed to be "decisive" back in 2022? Those were the days...

Comment from Kyiv: 1. The part about Zaluzhny vs Zelensky is a mystery, no one thinks there is such a conflict, but russian media is trying to convince everyone in it. 2. Technological superiority of Ukraine is super small. If we have real superiority we won”t stuck like we did. 3. There are no discussions about “land for peace” in society. But what we discuss a lot is corruption and where our gov-nt spends budget money.

Perun has been a blessing to YouTube. He really raised the bar and destroyed huge amounts of misinformation and terrible journalism.

My man, you cannot just casually drop a military coup in the United States like... what the fuck?!

Solutions has to be Trains and affordable housing.

The casual preduction of American military coup is really rattling the comments section 😂

will age as well as your last year prediction

A military coup in the US is super unlikely. If Trump wins, the USA will be more isolationist, which likely will garner a lot of support from the military, because contrary to popular beliefs on fringes of the internet, most people do not enjoy going to dumb meaningless wars, not even in America. Just ask veterans about how they feel regards Iraq or Afghanistan.

It sounds like Adam is in the bargaining stage of the seven stages of grief.

Adam, you are well versed in city infrastructure matters, but your war coverage has been completely subjective. You confidently stated that things would end swiftly in Ukraine’s favor a year ago. That obviously has been far from the truth.

Hello. I am from Ukraine, Kyiv. As some other people said already, conclusions are somewhat incorrect. In my circles, there is no one who would like to take russian "peace" agreement right now, and it was the same year ago. Yeah, mass mobilisation exists and unpleasant, but it's nowhere near to panic or tragedy. Year ago in winter, there were a lot of bombardments, now its much more silent thanks to Patriot, Nasams, Iris-T. It's less stressful than before, not vice versa. People are NOT giving up.